Severe RSV hits youngest infants earliest
In low- and middle-income countries, the most severe respiratory syncytial virus illness clusters in the first weeks of life.
*Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies; Level 1a (OCEBM).
Citation
Mahmud S, van Zandvoort K, Guo L, et al. Age distribution of respiratory syncytial virus disease in children younger than 5 years in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Child Adolesc Health. 2026;10:245–254.
Background
Global guidance supports passive protection against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in early infancy, but choosing the best timing requires detailed age patterns across mild to severe outcomes.
Patients
Children younger than 5 years in low- and middle-income countries; pre-pandemic data (2010–2019). Included datasets required at least 30 laboratory-confirmed RSV cases for one outcome in one country (a few death datasets had 20–29 in sensitivity analyses).
Intervention
Not applicable (age-distribution modeling of observed RSV outcomes).
Control
Not applicable.
Outcome
Age distributions for community cases, outpatient visits, emergency visits, hospital ward admissions, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths (in and out of facilities).
Follow-up Period
Data collected during 2010–2019 (pre-COVID-19 decade).
Results
160 datasets from 43 countries contributed 131,124 RSV-positive counts. More severe outcomes occurred at younger ages.
| RSV outcome |
Peak age (weeks) |
Share in infants <6 months |
Share in infants <8 weeks |
| Non-facility deaths |
3 |
57% |
— |
| Facility deaths |
4 |
57% |
23% |
| Intensive care unit admissions |
7 |
60% |
20% |
| Hospital ward admissions |
17 |
41% |
— |
| Emergency visits |
10 |
40% |
— |
| Outpatient visits |
28 |
19% |
— |
| Community cases |
22 |
26% |
— |
Limitations
RSV test positivity does not prove RSV caused the illness or death. Very few datasets informed death estimates, especially outside facilities. The modeling assumed no cases on day 0 of life and may miss neonatal, sepsis-like presentations. Individual risk factors (eg, prematurity) were not available.
Funding
World Health Organization (grant from the Gates Foundation).
Clinical Application
Plan RSV protection to start at birth or very early infancy; many intensive care admissions and deaths occur before 8 weeks, especially in low- and middle-income countries.