Opioid agonist treatment and risk of mortality in French primary care: a nationwide, retrospective cohort study
Periods on opioid agonist treatment were linked to substantially fewer deaths than periods off treatment in French primary care patients.
*Nationwide retrospective cohort study; Level 2b (OCEBM).
*Nationwide retrospective cohort study; Level 2b (OCEBM).
Citation
Dupouy J, Druel V, Verges Y, Pariente A, Lapeyre-Mestre M. Opioid agonist treatment and risk of mortality in French primary care: a nationwide, retrospective cohort study. Lancet Public Health. 2026;11:e449–e456.
Background
Opioid agonist treatment is widely used in France, especially buprenorphine, but long-term mortality data in primary care have been limited. This study compared death risk during time on versus off treatment.
Patients
175,191 people aged ≥15 years in France starting opioid agonist treatment (2010–2022) with at least two dispensings within 35 days; excluded non-incident users (no opioid agonist treatment-free year before starting) and those outside the main national insurance scheme.
Intervention
Time on opioid agonist treatment (buprenorphine, buprenorphine–naloxone, or methadone), based on pharmacy dispensing records.
Control
Time off opioid agonist treatment.
Outcome
(Primary) All-cause mortality at 1 year. (Secondary) All-cause mortality at 2, 5, and 7 years; selected causes of death.
Follow-up Period
Median 3,320 days (about 9.1 years).
Results
| Comparison | Time point | Adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) | Absolute difference (deaths per 1000 person-years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| On treatment vs off treatment | 1 year (primary) | 0.41 (0.37–0.44) | 21.45 fewer |
| On treatment vs off treatment | 2 years | 0.36 (0.34–0.39) | — |
| On treatment vs off treatment | 5 years | 0.36 (0.34–0.38) | — |
| On treatment vs off treatment | 7 years | 0.40 (0.37–0.42) | — |
| Buprenorphine vs off treatment | 1 year | 0.16 (0.14–0.18) | — |
| Methadone vs off treatment | 1 year | 0.58 (0.53–0.64) | — |
Approximate number needed to treat: about 47 person-years on treatment to prevent 1 death (using the 1-year rate difference).
Limitations
Observational design limits causal claims; unmeasured differences between on- and off-treatment periods could partly explain results. Medication dispensing does not guarantee medication taken. The larger apparent benefit for buprenorphine could reflect patient selection (indication bias). Cause-of-death data were not available for the most recent years and may be incomplete for suspicious deaths.
Funding
French medicine-safety agency and French National Health Insurance (EPI-PHARE).
Clinical Application
Reinforces prioritizing rapid access and long-term retention in opioid agonist treatment within primary care; interpret the larger buprenorphine effect cautiously due to likely patient selection.
Journal Club
Discussion questions and an EBM quiz for this paper. How to run a journal club →
Discussion question (1)
In this nationwide retrospective cohort with time-dependent Cox models, periods on opioid agonist treatment (OAT) vs off OAT were associated with lower 1-year all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.41; absolute risk difference 21.45 deaths/1000 person-years). Given the nonrandomized design, how convincing is this for causality, and should it change how strongly you prioritize retention on OAT?
EBM quiz (1 question)
1. In this retrospective cohort, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for 1-year all-cause mortality comparing on-OAT vs off-OAT time was 0.41. Which interpretation is most appropriate?
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